UCRA FIS INDEX (Foreign Investor Sentiment Index) for Ukraine continued to decline after a sharp drop in the previous month and reached a record low for the last 12 months with the value of 79.2 points. Continued fall of the index reflects investor pessimism regarding the possibility of a quick and effective resolution of the government crisis.

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UCRA FIS INDEX (Foreign Investor Sentiment Index) for Ukraine fell by 1.2 points in the past month but remained in the positive zone with a value of 103.7 points. A significant contribution to the mood of investors has been brought by uncertainty about the timing and conditions for the allocation of the third tranche of the IMF loan to Ukraine (postponed since 2015) and by the increased local currency devaluation risks.

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UCRA FIS INDEX (Foreign Investor Sentiment Index) for Ukraine returned to positive territory for the new year at 104.9 points. Investor sentiment has been greatly influenced by the adoption of the state budget for 2016 and changes to the Tax Code at the end of December. According to respondents, it gives investors a greater level of certainty on the prospects of further cooperation of the IMF with Ukraine. The negative factor for investors is potential political instability manifested in public scandals in the upper levels of the state authorities. Read more

UCRA FIS INDEX (Foreign Investor Sentiment Index) for Ukraine in November dropped by 8.7 points to reach 91.7 points. As we expected (see UCRA FIC INDEX release as of November 1), after three months of being in the positive zone (value of UCRA FIS INDEX was 108.4 as of September 1, 105.4 on October 1 and 100.4 on November 1), increasing negative dynamics of the index brought it all the way down to the negative zone. The uncertainty about the tax reform and parameters of the state budget for the next year contributed greatly to the sentiments of investors. At the sectoral side, as before, the prospects of investment in agriculture are the most optimistic among respondents (sub index value of 138.4) as throughout the year this sub index never visited the negative zone. Last month, the adoption in first reading of a law on deregulation in the agricultural sector served as one of the factors that positively influenced the perceptions of investors. Read more

Ukrainian stocks extended their slump on Tuesday, Sept. 15. The WIG Ukraine Index of Warsaw-traded stocks decreased 1.3%, extending its cold streak to four sessions at a 3.0% loss. It was weighed down by grain trader and sunflower oil maker Kernel (KER PW), which dropped 2.2%. Sugar producer Astarta (AST PW) fell 1.9%, extending its loss streak to five sessions at a 10.3% plunge.

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Bonds: Liquidity down slightly

Liquidity declined for the second consecutive day, albeit very little, yesterday. Broader banking sector liquidity fell UAH0.50bn to UAH71.03bn as banks’ correspondent accounts with the NBU increased UAH0.67bn to UAH21.64bn. Total CDs outstanding slid UAH0.09bn to UAH44.11bn and total local currency debt repayments were down UAH1.07bn to UAH5.28bn.

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CEEMEA. REGION SUMMARY

Fitch‟s Russian rating revision and expectations of the Greek referendum‟s results will drive today‟s market mood. We await flat trading with low volatility.

MACRO

We agree with Mr. Siluanov and also do not expect Fitch to downgrade Russia’s rating on Friday. This rating affirmation at the investment grade level may support Russian sovereign bond prices.

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Ukrainian bond markets reacted to news of the government’s new loan which was approved a week before but announced last week. Because of this loan as well as of last week’s monthly tax payments, the MoF did not refinance all debt repayments, but instead raised less than half of its needs.

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Domestic bond market. The MoF held primary auctions twice last week, mostly to raise significant proceeds for the state budget, but these borrowings were made mostly to finance budget needs in funds for debt repayments scheduled for the last week and for this one. These issues were also supported by the NBU via purchasing government bonds at the secondary market and by the MoF through debt repayments to provide funds to banking sector liquidity while maintaining stability.

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